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50 pages 1 hour read

Peter Thiel

Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2014

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Themes

Creative Monopoly

The word monopoly invokes visions of cruel, selfish tycoons twisting their mustaches with delight as they dominate marketplaces with expensive, low-quality products and control governments through bribery. While this idea is rooted both in media and the history of industrial-era monopolists, Thiel offers a more contemporary concept of monopoly. His idea is a creative monopoly, one that brings vastly improved products which dominate their industries because their products are so much better than the available alternatives. This achievement requires hard, creative work, but it brings about a better world for customers. It also rewards companies and their investors with big earnings.

According to Thiel, most companies are satisfied to follow the crowd, copy what industry leaders are producing, offer it at a slightly lower price, and try to make a little profit. There’s no security in such a business plan; sooner or later, it becomes a recipe for failure as competitors match prices or offer slight improvements in their products. Companies that break this mold and encourage creative thinking among their workers to develop standout products can attract customers who are happy to pay extra for purchases that really make a difference in their lives. For Thiel, these companies redefine how a monopoly is created as the result of market meritocracy rather than brute force or coercion. By divorcing monopoly from its unsavory roots, he puts forward the idea that a monopoly can be moral if it's created through creativity and achievement.

Thiel presents certain conditions that must be met if businesses expect to succeed as market leaders. He incorporates his own 10x concept into this model of success, asserting that companies must develop products that are ten times better than current offerings. These products go way beyond incremental improvements to inspire market-changing shifts in consumer demand. These companies also must have founders and staffers who work well together, are inspired to work hard to achieve the firm’s goals and have ownership in the company.

Similar to his attributing market domination to creativity, Thiel emphasizes that successful creative monopolies will continue to succeed by cultivating positive emotions like passion and inspiration. When investors and employees are emotionally invested in their products and mission, they’ll promote and time their product launches carefully, capture a small market, expand slowly into larger markets, and sustain their thirst for creative development even as their new product takes over a marketplace. In these ways, a business can stay ahead of any competitive threats and avoid the costly and time-wasting battles that most companies engage in when they sell the same products as everyone else.

With this, Thiel asserts that creative monopolies can not only be moral, but altruistic; the best path to a fortune is also the path that does the most to benefit others. “Creative monopoly means new products that benefit everybody and sustainable profits for the creator” (36). A better future is established, not by out-competing other groups with similar products but by creating entirely new ones that delight customers and improve the world.

The Ideology of Competition

Most people in the US believe that the business of capitalism is competition. It’s often seen as a great virtue that companies engage in ruthless battles to control their market share, which brings down prices and sometimes improves quality. However, Thiel finds that competition limits innovation rather than stokes it: “More than anything else, competition is an ideology—the ideology—that pervades our society and distorts our thinking” (36). He asserts that too much emphasis on competition limits a company’s ability to make the really significant improvements to products and services that would greatly benefit consumers.

Just as startups disrupt their markets, Thiel argues for disrupting the way we think about business—and capitalism as a whole. The dominant narrative, that competition is healthy and necessary, starts in school, where getting good grades gives access to better schools and better job opportunities, so young people learn to be the best at imitating what their elders want. Today, when accelerating change calls on us to find innovative ways forward, most successful people are able only to keep repeating the winning formulas. When everyone has the same formulas, endless competition ensues: “We preach competition, internalize its necessity, and enact its commandments; and as a result, we trap ourselves within it—even though the more we compete, the less we gain” (36).

In deemphasizing competition, Thiel emphasizes the roles of inspiration, creativity, and passion when it comes to market domination, building on his concept of creative monopoly. When companies focus on preserving and extending their portion of the mature market, they allow fear and the desire for stability to dominate their decision-making, rather than keeping their market share by earning their customers’ loyalty through innovation.

Thiel concedes that competition provides some benefits to customers: Prices drop and quality edges upward. The problem is that this becomes a race to the bottom, where prices end up so low that companies can no longer profit. With few or no profits to bank, they can’t afford to do the research and development that might generate entirely new and much better products. Thus, while competition looks virtuous and beneficial, it limits the ability of the marketplace to make important improvements to the things people buy. Companies should therefore avoid the trap of competition. As with his creative monopoly, Thiel ascribes a sort of morality to thriving outside of competition; by developing great new products, companies can dominate their markets, make large profits, contribute to the improvement of customers’ lives, and offer better pay and working conditions to their employees.

While Thiel sometimes emphasizes emotional or otherwise intangible aspects required for success, he cautions against placing too much value in the idea of luck. He claims that emphasizing luck is a side-effect of excessive competition, that people end up believing that whoever happens to do better in the marketplace with the same products will win the game. As companies take turns briefly at the top of a profitless marketplace, they can only afford to plan the next marketing campaign against their opponents. They have neither the time, money, nor belief that true market dominance is possible. No true innovations can come from this. Inventing the future requires companies that refuse to compete with the same old products or believe in the old way of doing things, but who will achieve dominance in their markets through creative risks.

Indefinite Optimism

Thiel believes the US has lost the sense of “definite optimism” with which it built up America after World War II. Sometime in the 1970s, the determination to create the future got replaced with what he calls “indefinite optimism”: It retained the enthusiasm but lost its sense of direction. Thiel argues that what’s needed is a return to a sense dedication to creative invention.

Thiel traces this idea to childhood; in the late 1900s, schools emphasized the virtues of a diverse education, and students dutifully built portfolios of widely-dispersed activities and accomplishments. As they enter the workplace, their resumés lack only one thing: the ability to set a specific course of action and follow it through to a creative, valuable conclusion. Instead of the hard-driving desire to build inspiring new things that benefit society and improve a nation, American workers have come to believe that it’s not possible or necessary to create specific, useful things that can enhance the future.

The population having thus lost its sense of definite optimism, it replaced that attitude with an equally cheerful, but much less powerful, sense of indefinite optimism. “To an indefinite optimist, the future will be better, but he doesn’t know how exactly, so he won’t make any specific plans. He expects to profit from the future but sees no reason to design it concretely” (66). Such workers are good at rearranging old, known products to make them more useful and efficient, but they’re not good at inventing entirely new products and services that kick-start entire markets into being and change the world for the better.

The result is incremental improvements—a slightly less-expensive model, a better payment plan, more smiles from retail clerks. Meanwhile, everyone begins to believe that the real, life-changing fortunes come, not from effort, but from luck. In an economy that gets better over time, there’s no reason to put in the extra effort required to achieve greatness, since things will get better anyway.

Of course, if everyone believes this, then no one will bother to make the discoveries that fuel the continuing improvements. Economies stagnate while people stand around, waiting for someone—or something—to come along and keep the good times rolling. Companies struggle to make money from products have devolved into commodities priced too low to permit any significant earnings. “Without new technology to relieve competitive pressures, stagnation is likely to erupt into conflict” (190-91)—not only between companies, but between nations armed with world-destroying weapons. As the planet’s human population burgeons without inspiring new inventions that improve lives, struggles over scarce resources may lead to violent conflict.

Thiel’s prescription is, simply, more innovation, the kind that overturns and reinvigorates markets, replaces stagnation with real improvements, and rewards inventive companies with healthy profits. This requires a change in attitude that includes definite, forward-looking optimism and concrete visions for the future.

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