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Friedrich HayekA modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality Study Guides with detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, and more.
Hayek presents four arguments in favor of central planning, shows why each has its appeal, then demonstrates how the free market solves the problem in a better way.
The first argument claims that, as industries advance, they devolve into monopolies—the sheer size of large companies drive out smaller firms—and the only way to restore competition is for the government to control these markets. Hayek admits that, in recent history, many industries had, indeed, concentrated into the hands of a few.
He then cites multiple sources, including a report from the planning-oriented 1941 American Congress, that find no evidence that size creates monopolies. Hayek points out, instead, that “aspiring monopolists regularly seek and frequently obtain the assistance of the power of the state to make their control effective” (92). He highlights the case of 19th-century Germany, where a national policy of deliberate concentration of industry led directly to the very monopolistic abuses decried by socialists.
The second argument is that economies have become so complicated that some sort of central planning is required to prevent chaos. Hayek agrees that planning is important in certain areas but that highly-complex processes, such as modern markets, simply cannot be controlled from an office. Instead, the decentralized price system naturally solves the problem of coordinating marketplaces: “It enables entrepreneurs, by watching the movement of comparatively few prices, as an engineer watches the hands of a few dials, to adjust their activities to those of their fellows” (95).
The third argument proposes that forcing people to use a new technology will drive down its cost and make it viable, thus advancing civilization. Hayek responds that this could create isolated benefits but at the cost of other inventions, as yet unknown, that might prove even better: “the argument for freedom is precisely that we ought to leave room for the unforeseeable free growth” (97).
The fourth and final argument is that technologists can speed up their contributions if societies focus their resources on new inventions. Again, Hayek agrees that forcing resources into particular technologies can jumpstart those fields. He points to the German road system, newly expanded at the time, which he calls “magnificent” (98).
But those highways stand largely empty, “the amount of traffic on them less than on many a secondary road in England” (98). Special interests clamor for government mandates, but their entreaties fly in the face of competing wants from other groups. Whether the public wants any of these pet projects is a matter best left to the marketplace.
Hayek finds three reasons why central planning must become dictatorial, even within a democracy.
First, the aim of collectivism—“the deliberate organization of the labors of society for a definite social goal” (100)—is undefined and morally suspect. Millions of people have countless competing preferences, and there is no generally-accepted set of values that all have agreed to obey. Collectivist planners sweep aside individual choices and replace them with a unitary purpose; thus, “they are totalitarian in the true sense of this new word” (100). The historical trend toward greater and greater freedom would be reversed under central planning.
Second, legislating a unitary purpose involves so many minute adjustments to an economy, and so many compromises between competing interest groups, that it becomes effectively impossible. Democracies and legislatures are designed to make decisions involving issues where the public already agrees substantially on the fundamentals. Central planning of an economy, on the other hand, involves countless points of disagreement, which quickly overwhelm the decision-making process. It is one thing for a military leader to gather decision-making into his hands, as his purpose is simple; it is quite another for a government to try to take the reins of an entire economy with its many conflicting players and their multiple purposes.
Third, central planning must lead to dictatorial effects, even if such plans begin in a democratic process. For one thing, a rule issued in one domain could limit freedom in another. Hayek cites the German government of 1928, which controlled more than half its economy, effectively dictating how the rest of the economy would function. Lawmakers will sidestep the complexities of central-planning and pass simplified laws that leave most decisions to the discretion of bureaucrats. These officials issue fiats, which in turn conflict with other bureaus’ dictates, until the public cries out for a single official who will make all the decisions.
Thus, “a socialist government must not allow itself to be too much fettered by democratic procedure” (105). No matter how well-intentioned, economic planning will become a tyranny.
Up to now, Hayek has focused on how collectivist economic planning tends to limit freedom. Now he turns to the damage that planning does to another fundamental principle of democratic societies: the Rule of Law.
Hayek defines the Rule of Law as the principle “that government in all its actions is bound by rules fixed and announced beforehand” (112). Those charged with fulfilling the laws of the land must not act arbitrarily but instead follow the guidelines set out by the legislature.
Without this restriction, governments can become arbitrary, but “under the Rule of Law the government is prevented from stultifying individual efforts by ad hoc action” (112). The difference between the Rule of Law and rules laid down by central planners is like the difference “between providing signposts and commanding people which road to take” (113).
Hayek reminds us that central planning requires countless arbitrary decisions made by bureaucrats: “When the government has to decide how many pigs are to be raised or how many busses are to be run, which coal mines are to operate, or at what prices shoes are to be sold, these decisions cannot be deduced from formal principles” (113). Bureaucrats must decide between competing interests on the fly, which privileges one group over another, leading to “a new distinction of rank” (113). This arbitrariness violates the Rule of Law.
Under the Rule of Law, the government sets forth general guidelines that it will enforce. This allows people to make plans, knowing more or less how the government will behave. Rules must be simple and fair and “given the form most likely on the whole to benefit all the people affected by them” (114).
Doubters complain that the Rule of Law doesn’t permit us to foretell outcomes, as with a system of central planning. Hayek responds that the limits imposed by the Rule of Law are superior because “only the individuals concerned in each instance can fully know these circumstances and adapt their actions to them” (114). Otherwise, the state becomes tyrannical.
Planners in a given industry argue that their own work is fairly straightforward, so why can’t governments plan for an entire economy? Hayek answers that industrial planners have a simple set of concerns limited to the specific needs of their industry, whereas central planners must consider the endless competing wants and needs of the citizenry.
The daily restrictions and unfairness that people suffer under planning, “allowing one man to do what another must be prevented from doing” (116), will cause citizens, over the decades, to lose respect for law and legislature, until—as in the case of Germany—they seek refuge in a dictator like Hitler.
Hayek deduces that political equality, as promoted by the Rule of Law, conflicts with the needs of central planning, which instead reverts to the older “rule of status” that confers arbitrary privileges upon one group over another (116).
Some argue that the state should act more forcefully to remedy various ills. Hayek counters that a Rule-of-Law nation-state, “controlling weights and measures (or preventing fraud and deception in any other way) is certainly acting, while the state permitting the use of violence, for example, by strike pickets, is inactive” (118).
To those who protest that the Rule of Law gives governments the right to perform any action so long as it is duly constituted by legislation, Hayek points to Hitler, who arguably obtained his dictatorial powers through a democratic process: “By giving the government unlimited powers, the most arbitrary rule can be made legal; and in this way a democracy may set up the most complete despotism imaginable” (119).
Many intellectuals argue both for planning and for individual human rights, which Hayek declares “pathetic” and a “muddle” (121). He cites H.G. Wells’ planning-centric “Declaration of the Rights of Man” as shot through with contradictions: “The individual rights which Mr. Wells hopes to preserve would inevitably obstruct the planning which he desires” (121).
More forthright are progressives who directly oppose human liberty in favor of government power. Hayek grants that their position, though it completely violates the Rule of Law, is at least logically consistent. Their view, however, leads directly to ruthless suppression of freedom, especially of national minorities who stand in the way of government plans.
A modern economy is made up of millions of small, daily decisions made by millions of individuals, each causing minuscule adjustments to demand, pricing, and the flow of goods and services. This system works fairly smoothly without the need for a central planner. Now and then, a market will run into trouble—for example, a disaster that causes a sudden price change, or a bad actor who commits a massive fraud—and collectivists will declare that the market has failed and must be commandeered by government.
With enough such calls to action, a democracy might vote to nationalize industries and take other steps that centralize economic decision-making. Such edicts cause ripple effects that set off more troubles, which in turn generate more edicts, until the system becomes trapped in a vicious circle of problems and fiats. The society ends up with difficulties vastly worse than the original problem. Hayek cites 1928 Germany, and its ensuing collapse from semi-socialized democracy into Nazism, as an object lesson.
Since then, a number of other countries have tried socialism, with generally bad results. Always among the problems are those predicted by Hayek: disjointed resource allocation (when edicts cause bad side-effects), loss of personal freedom (as bureaucrats rein in people who try to get around the new rules), and a breakdown in the Rule of Law (as planners violate restrictions on arbitrary governance).
The stodginess of planning at least has the advantage of setting a course ahead of time, whereas free markets innovate and shift in unexpected ways. Not knowing the future makes us uneasy; we yearn for a certainty we can’t find in markets, so we turn to the false security of planning. By the time we realize our mistake, warns Hayek, it may be too late.