The Age of Magical Overthinking: Notes on Modern Irrationality

Declinism is a cognitive bias that leads people to believe that society is in a continual state of decline, with the past perceived as better or more virtuous than the present. Montell discusses how this bias distorts modern perceptions, particularly in relation to nostalgia and doomsday thinking. Declinism is exacerbated by the fading bias effect, where negative memories fade faster than positive ones, leaving an overly idealized view of the past. Montell argues that declinism is often weaponized by political figures and marketers, who romanticize the past to push certain agendas. While acknowledging that some aspects of declinism, such as concerns about climate change, are valid, Montell critiques the broader tendency to dramatize the present and underestimate societal progress. She encourages readers to challenge declinism by recognizing both the improvements in modern life and the biases that shape their perceptions of decline.

The halo effect is a cognitive bias where individuals make overly positive generalizations based on one favorable trait, such as assuming that an attractive person is confident and extroverted. Montrell explores how the halo effect influences the irrationality of extreme fandom, where celebrities are deified based on superficial or illusory qualities. This bias leads fans to deify their idols and ignore their complexities and flaws, which can result in unhealthy, obsessive behavior.

The IKEA effect refers to the cognitive bias in which people place higher value on objects that they have partially created or assembled themselves. Named after the Swedish furniture retailer, this effect suggests that the effort invested in building or crafting something leads individuals to feel a stronger attachment to it. Montell reflects on how the IKEA effect applies to modern DIY culture, where people gain satisfaction and fulfillment from participating in the creation process. Montell also connects the IKEA effect to the broader human desire for productivity, arguing that the hands-on nature of creating something, whether it be furniture or food, fosters a sense of accomplishment and social connection.

The illusory truth effect is a cognitive bias where repeated information, whether true or false, is more likely to be perceived as accurate. This phenomenon distorts perception and promotes irrational thinking, as individuals tend to believe something simply because they’ve heard it multiple times. She notes that while the illusory truth effect can be relatively harmless in some cases, such as common myths or proverbs, it can also have damaging consequences, like perpetuating harmful stereotypes or misinformation. Montell criticizes the manipulation of this effect by public figures, who often use repetitive, oversimplified messaging to influence public opinion. Ultimately, she challenges readers to be more critical of widely accepted “truths,” especially those that have been repeatedly reinforced without scrutiny.

Magical thinking refers to the belief that one’s thoughts, actions, or symbols can influence events in ways that defy logical reasoning and scientific understanding. Montell explores how this type of irrational thinking has permeated modern culture, from wellness trends to conspiracy theories, as a coping mechanism in an increasingly complex world. Montell argues that magical thinking is not just a fringe phenomenon but a widespread mindset that impacts how people perceive reality, make decisions, and interact with the world. The term functions as a lens through which Montell analyzes the irrational underpinnings of contemporary societal beliefs and behaviors.

Overconfidence bias is the cognitive tendency to overestimate one’s knowledge or abilities or the accuracy of one’s judgments. Montell examines how this bias is prevalent in everyday life, influencing decisions across various domains such as finance, healthcare, and technology. She notes that overconfidence can sometimes be beneficial, as it helps individuals appear self-assured, potentially increasing their chances of success or survival. However, it often leads to severe consequences, including poor decision-making and inflated self-assessment. Montell also connects overconfidence bias to broader social phenomena, such as the aspiration for internet fame among adolescents and the moral overconfidence seen in social media discourse.

Proportionality bias is the cognitive tendency to overestimate cause-and-effect relationships, particularly by assuming that significant events must have equally significant causes. Montell discusses how this bias contributes to the popularity of conspiracy theories and pseudoscientific beliefs, such as the idea that personal mindset can control one’s health and destiny. Montell argues that mental health influencers, like The Manifestation Doctor, capitalize on the proportionality bias by promoting the belief that individuals have the power to manifest their desired outcomes, thus oversimplifying complex issues. This bias makes people more susceptible to misleading claims as they seek substantial explanations for life’s challenges, ultimately leading to obsessive self-blame and disillusionment when outcomes don’t match expectations.

The recency illusion is the cognitive bias that leads individuals to believe that a phenomenon is recent or novel, even when it has been around for much longer. Montell discusses how this bias affects perception, especially in the context of the modern news cycle, where new, eye-catching headlines constantly capture attention, making older stories quickly fade from public focus. Montell argues that the recency illusion has evolutionary roots, as humans historically needed to prioritize novel threats for survival. However, in the digital age, this bias contributes to overwhelming anxiety, as individuals are bombarded with information that triggers strong emotional reactions, often at the expense of rational decision-making. Montell suggests that slowing down and focusing on meaningful, awe-inspiring moments can help combat the recency illusion, allowing individuals to regain control over their attention and mental well-being.

Stans are devoted fans of celebrities, with some exhibiting obsessive behaviors toward those they admire. The term was popularized by Eminem’s 2000 song “Stan,” which is about a stalker. Montell uses the term in Chapter 1 to describe the modern phenomenon of fanatical devotion that can lead to aggressive, even dangerous, behaviors. These fans often deify their idols, which Montell links to the halo effect, and can influence public discourse by censoring critics or causing psychological hardship for the idolized celebrities. The concept of “stans” is crucial in understanding the darker side of celebrity worship and the impact of social media on amplifying these extreme behaviors.

The sunk cost fallacy is the cognitive bias where individuals continue investing in a decision based on the cumulative prior investment—whether time, money, or effort—rather than evaluating the current value or outcome of the situation. Montell uses the sunk cost fallacy to explore why people, including herself, stay in toxic or unfulfilling relationships. She illustrates how this bias can trap individuals in situations that no longer serve them, driven by the fear of losing what they’ve already invested. Montell critiques the mindset, encouraging readers to recognize when it’s time to let go, cut their losses, and prioritize their well-being over the misplaced hope of eventual rewards.

Survivorship bias is the cognitive bias that leads individuals to focus on those who succeed or survive while overlooking those who do not, thereby creating a skewed perception of reality. Montell explores how this bias affects our understanding of success, health, and history, often leading to irrational conclusions. For example, Montell discusses how this bias can cause people to mistakenly attribute survival to positive thinking or good behavior, ignoring the countless others who did the same but did not survive. She also uses the example of military officials during World War II, who only examined damaged planes that returned home, failing to account for those that didn’t make it back. This bias not only distorts our perception of the past, as seen in the selective preservation of museum artifacts, but also impacts our present understanding of health and success, leading to flawed expectations and misguided beliefs. Montell’s analysis of survivorship bias underscores the importance of considering the full scope of experiences, not just the visible or successful ones, to gain a more accurate and rational understanding of the world.