In the Likely Event

Nathaniel “Nate” Phelan is the male protagonist in the novel. Nate is 19 when the novel begins. Having just joined the army, he is on his way to bootcamp. Nate is a survivor of domestic violence, for the narrative eventually reveals that his father abused both Nate and his mother. This traumatic element of Nate’s childhood has caused him to grow up faster than most young men, and it also characterizes his decision to join the army as a desperate attempt to escape his family life. As a young man who grew up on a farm, Nate might otherwise have been naïve and innocent, but his family life has shown him a side to human nature that has changed his view of the world profoundly, spurring him to embody the role of protector in any given situation: an urge that serves him well throughout his career as a soldier.

Even in the earliest scenes of the novel, Nate shows a natural instinct to help and protect people, for he makes it a point to look after Izzy to an intense degree in the aftermath of the plane crash. This instinct appears again when Nate is assigned to protect Izzy in Afghanistan. Not only does Nate protect Izzy in these dangerous situations, but he also protects the members of the girls’ chess team, as well as other members of the embassy staff. Nate also saves Serena from the checkpoint where she is held during her trip to Kabul. Nate’s instincts to protect others likely come from his efforts to protect his mother from his father’s abuse over the years. The behavioral pattern thus becomes the foundation of his desire to be part of the military. However, there is one instance in which Nate ignores his instinct to protect: the day that he allows his friend, Julian Torres, to ignore a life-threatening snake bite in favor of protecting his bid to join the Special Forces.

Nate’s battle with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is an unusual one in that he remains fully aware of his psychological break and is able to mitigate the effects of his ongoing hallucinations of his deceased comrade, Julian Torres, even as his job continues to embroil him in stressful situations. However, the fact that Nate does battle PTSD is not unusual among soldiers who, like Nate, have seen friends and colleagues wounded or killed, and who have also been wounded themselves. PTSD is a real issue among many active-duty soldiers and veterans alike, and by presenting a version of this mental health issue in her novel, Rebecca Yarros helps to familiarize the potential effects of the condition in a mainstream setting, and her novel therefore represents an attempt to normalize mental health issues and facilitate a more open conversation that supports people rather than stigmatizing them.

Nate’s reluctance to enter into a committed relationship with Izzy can be interpreted as noble, for he wants to avoid causing her to miss out on the experiences of being a young woman in college. Nate doesn’t want to disrupt Izzy’s life or deprive her of valuable experiences. Unfortunately, however, Nate fails to realize that once Izzy falls in love with Nate, her life is already disrupted, and pushing her away can only cause psychological pain. Once again, Nate is attempting to protect someone just as he likely protected his mother in childhood. However, in doing so, he causes confusion and hurt rather than preventing it. In the end, Nate shows new character growth when he finally understands this and opens himself up to the possibility of a life with Izzy by his side, leading to the classic “happily ever after” ending.

Serena Astor is Izzy’s older sister. In the face of their parents’ indifference, Serena has taken on the role of a parent toward Izzy in addition to being her sister and her friend. As a result, Serena is the only person in Izzy’s life who has always been present for her. She is the one who comes to Izzy’s rescue and the one who cares for her even when no one else does. As a result, Izzy desperately wishes to return the favor by rescuing Serena from the increasingly dangerous situation in Afghanistan. Thus, this sisterly connection serves as the focus of Izzy’s motivation for traveling to Afghanistan in the first place, thereby creating a situation that places her in the same location as Nate. Without Serena’s decision to go to Afghanistan and photograph the fall of the country, Izzy would never have chosen to go to Afghanistan as part of the congressional delegation and wouldn’t have added the extra visits to dangerous provinces that place her life in danger.

Not only is Serena the reason Izzy travels to Afghanistan, but she is also a driving force in Nate and Izzy’s relationship. Serena meets Nate early in Izzy’s relationship to him and becomes an advocate of their potential romance. Serena helps to orchestrate Nate’s visit to Izzy on her birthday in 2014. Likewise, she is the voice of reason when Izzy goes to Palau, the one who comforts Izzy when things don’t go as planned, and the one who encourages her to go after Nate following his failed proposal. Serena clearly believes that Nate makes Izzy happy. Without Serena, Nate and Izzy might never progress in their relationship. Finally, it is Serena’s support and understanding that help Izzy to make her feelings known to Nate during the ill-fated trip to Afghanistan.

Julian Torres is a minor character who only appears a few times throughout the novel. However, he is an important figure in Nate’s life because even after his untimely death, he remains Nate’s best friend, and it is during a series of conversations with his recurring hallucinations of the long-dead Julian that Nate finally works out his feelings for Izzy. While Julian is still alive, he is also the one who encourages Nate to join the Special Forces: the program that pulls Nate away from Izzy and also creates the situation in which he later becomes the head of her protection detail in Afghanistan in 2021.

Julian is first introduced in the earlier timeline, when he is with Nate at the bar in Georgia on the night that Nate and Izzy are unexpectedly reunited a few years after the plane crash. Nate admits that Julian is the only one of his military friends who knows all about Izzy and the plane crash, marking him as Nate’s best friend. Later, it is Julian’s encouragement that allows Nate to begin the process of joining the Special Forces. Thus, the author makes it clear that Julian’s opinion matters a great deal to Nate, and whether alive or dead, Julian takes on the role of confidant and advisor, serving a purpose similar to Serena’s role in Izzy’s life. This pattern continues when Nate proposes to Izzy and when he sees her again in Afghanistan. In fact, Nate can be seen talking to Julian quite often, though the author strategically disguises the fact that Nate is the only one who interacts with Julian in these later passages. In the end, it is revealed that Julian died years ago due to a snake bite, a situation that Nate considers to be his fault. Julian’s death clearly has a major impact on Nate, and it later becomes clear that Nate’s imagined conversations with Julian are a symptom of his PTSD. In this capacity, Julian becomes a more significant part of the plot because of the unique role he plays in highlighting Nate’s experience of PTSD.