In the Likely Event

Fiction | Novel | Adult | Published in 2023

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Summary

Background

Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Chapters 1-7

Chapters 8-14

Chapters 15-20

Chapters 21-27

Chapter 28-Epilogue

Character Analysis

Themes

Symbols & Motifs

Important Quotes

Essay Topics

Tools

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Discussion Questions

Chapters 8-14Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Chapter 8 Summary: “Izzy”

Saint Louis: November 2011. Due to the lingering effects of her concussion, Izzy struggles to remember details about the young man who saved her during the plane crash. Serena suggests they check her medical records, since he signed for her surgery, but they cannot read his handwriting. All Izzy can decipher is his first name: Nate.

Izzy’s parents call from the cruise ship where they are currently vacationing. After assuring themselves that she is recovering, they announce that they won’t be coming home early, and it is clear that because Izzy is out of danger, they see no reason to interrupt their vacation. Instead, Serena drives Izzy back to school in Syracuse. Two months later, Izzy receives a package from the airline that contains Nate’s backpack. The airline sent it to Izzy because it was under her assigned seat. They threw away everything that was ruined by the water, so all that is left is an iPod that was preserved in a plastic bag. However, Izzy does learn Nate’s full name because it is written inside the backpack.

Chapter 9 Summary: “Izzy”

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Izzy has a nightmare about the plane crash, and Nate comes to check on her. They talk about their nightmares and touch briefly on their former relationship, but when the conversation becomes hostile, Nate encourages Izzy to ignore the unfinished business between them. Then he notices that Izzy’s aide has brought more news filings. They find a picture credited to Serena among them, and Nate identifies the area, telling Izzy that her sister is in Mazar-i-Sharif.

Chapter 10 Summary: “Nathaniel”

Tybee Island, Georgia: June 2014. Nate is at a bar playing pool with some of his military buddies when he coincidentally spots Izzy among the attendees of a bachelorette party. Izzy and Nate step outside to talk when one of Nate’s friends, Fitz, comes over. Nate introduces Izzy as his wife, and they laugh at Fitz’s shock. Izzy touches the scar on Nate’s forehead, telling Fitz about the plane crash, and Fitz is upset that Nate has only told this story to Torres. Izzy learns that Nate is about to deploy to Afghanistan, and she tells him that she’s about to move to Washington, DC, to attend Georgetown Law School. They talk for hours and exchange cell phone numbers before parting. The next morning, Izzy calls Nate and says that she didn’t get on the plane.

Chapter 11 Summary: “Nathaniel”

Kabul, Afghanistan: August 2021. Izzy confronts Nate, accusing him of trying to leave her security detail. Nate explains that he is going to Mazar-i-Sharif to locate Serena. Izzy insists on going with him. Nate argues against it but learns that Izzy has already arranged for Senator Lauren to change the itinerary. Nate is now ordered to take her to Mazar-i-Sharif. However, after spending hours at the Mazar-i-Sharif airport helping evacuees fill out visa requests, they have no word of Serena. Nate informs Izzy that it is time to go, but she begs for a few more minutes. In an attempt to get her way, Izzy turns the tables on Nate by telling him that she has spent the past three years waiting and watching for his obituary, since it is the only way she would ever learn of his death following his decision to disappear on her. Nate informs her that he listed her as his next of kin so that she would be notified if anything ever happened to him. As Izzy processes this information, Serena walks in.

Chapter 12 Summary: “Izzy”

Tybee Island, Georgia: June 2014. Nate and Izzy go to a bookstore and get their favorite novels so they can highlight their favorite passages, then exchange them. They read for a while, then go swimming. Izzy reveals that she’s not excited to go to Georgetown because she had planned to go there with her college boyfriend, who later became her fiancé, but he changed his mind and decided to go to Yale instead. He also ended the engagement. Nate kisses Izzy but pulls back because he doesn’t want to start something that he can’t finish. Nate doesn’t want to define the nature of their relationship because he doesn’t want to hold Izzy back from fully experiencing life while he’s deployed. However, they agree to write to each other and to meet again when he returns to the States.

Chapter 13 Summary: “Izzy”

Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan: August 2021. Izzy is relieved to find her sister but grows disappointed when she learns that Serena will not leave until her interpreter, Taj Barech, receives his visa. As they talk, Serena lets it slip to Nate that Izzy works for Senator Lauren because the senator sponsored a bill to end the war in Afghanistan. Izzy reluctantly leaves without Serena.

When Izzy and Nate return to the embassy, Jeremy is in the hall outside Izzy’s room. Nate sees Jeremy’s name on his badge and realizes that this man is the same former fiancé who once convinced Izzy to go to Georgetown and then changed his plans and ended the engagement.

Chapter 14 Summary: “Izzy”

Georgetown: October 2014. Izzy rereads a letter from Nate while Serena attempts to make dinner. Serena teases Izzy for being obsessed with Nate, complaining that she hasn’t left the apartment in weeks except to go to class. Serena changes the subject, mentioning that Izzy should pay attention to a congressional candidate from their home state who is running on a platform to end the war in Afghanistan. Izzy dismisses the conversation, expressing her lack of interest in politics despite the pressure that her father places on her to get involved in politics in order to benefit the family business.

Later, Izzy is making a list of beaches that she and Nate could visit and places Fiji first. It’s the day before her birthday, and her parents have cancelled their trip to see her. Serena announces that she’s going to spend the next few days at her boyfriend’s apartment. Izzy goes to the kitchen to get her dinner and discovers Nate waiting for her.

Chapters 8-14 Analysis

The theme of Abandonment Through Disappointment is explored in several different ways in this section of the novel, all of which highlight Izzy’s innate fear of suffering further indifference from the people she loves most. This trend is first introduced in the earlier timeline in the novel, when Izzy’s own parents choose to prioritize their vacation instead of supporting their daughter in the aftermath of the plane crash and her resultant surgery. Rationalizing their decision with the weak excuse that Izzy is already recovering, they fail to acknowledge the deeper wounds that their absence and lack of concern inflict upon their daughter’s psyche. Their indifference to her emotional well-being is reiterated in 2014 when they summarily cancel their plans to visit Izzy on her birthday. This behavior represents a well-established pattern in Izzy’s relationship with her parents, and the resulting sense of abandonment that Izzy feels at this treatment bleeds into other areas of her life, most notably in her lingering fury over Nate’s unfortunate decision to “disappear” on her. Although this event has yet to be fully explained, it nonetheless fuels much of the pair’s mutual hostility when they meet in Afghanistan.

Because Nate and Izzy’s 2021 meeting is so fraught with unresolved issues and negative emotions, the earlier timeline bears the burden of conveying the more positive aspects of their past relationship. To that end, the author undertakes a series of strategic flashbacks that punctuate the more recent narrative, providing retrospective counterpoints to the difficulties that the pair must still overcome. Within the years-long timeline of their developing relationship, their lucky encounter in Georgia represents a hopeful new beginning that sets the stage for the author to explain some of the issues that arise between the characters during their time in Afghanistan. For example, the younger Izzy tells Nate about her past relationship with a boy who convinced her to go to Georgetown and then abandoned her to attend Yale instead. This fragment of Izzy’s backstory is a calculated one on the author’s part, for it is just enough information to allow Nate to recognize Izzy’s fiancé, Jeremy, when Jeremy unexpectedly visits Izzy in Afghanistan. With the revelation that the man to whom Izzy is now engaged is the same one who broke a previous engagement and abandoned her, the author creates instant negative associations and casts Jeremy in the role of an interloper, even though, as Izzy’s fiancé, he ostensibly holds greater leverage than Nate currently does.

Whereas The Myriad Effects of Psychological Trauma compel Nate to try to protect everyone, Izzy harbors a similar drive to fix things for everyone, and this is the true reason for her bold and ill-considered expedition to Afghanistan, for the need to save her sister, Serena, overrides the dangerous nature of the endeavor in her eyes. Yet even her current presence amid this intense political turmoil gives rise to unanswered questions about her career path and life choices, for previous flashback chapters have already established that she had no interest in engaging in politics of any kind. While this earlier reticence is not fully explained, Serena now reveals that Izzy’s current willingness to work with Senator Lauren is based on the senator’s stance against the war in Afghanistan. While Izzy’s choices have yet to be fully revealed, these passages hint that there is indeed more to the story than Nate currently understands, thereby foreshadowing a later moment in which the reasons for Izzy’s choice to engage in politics will become clear.

In this section of the novel, the author inserts surprise arrivals into both timelines—Jeremy’s arrival in 2021 Afghanistan, and the young Nate’s arrival in Washington, DC, for Izzy’s earlier birthday. This choice is a deliberate one, for Yarros often creates parallel actions within related aspects of the overall plot, thereby providing expository moments for the more recent narrative even as the moods of both scenes are designed to stand in sharp contrast to one another. For example, it is clear that Nate’s unexpected arrival in 2014 is a happy moment that reverses Izzy’s low mood and creeping sense of abandonment. Conversely, Jeremy’s arrival in 2021 proves that Izzy wants her fiancé nowhere near her, for she vehemently insists that he give her more time and space to herself. Furthermore, Jeremy’s arrival while Nate is present is designed to increase the overall tension and create opportunities for conflict and character development between Izzy and Nate as the story continues to unfold.