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42 pages 1 hour read

Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund

Factfulness

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2018

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Introduction-Chapter 1Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Introduction Summary: “Why I Love the Circus”

Rosling opens Factfulness with his childhood dream of being a sword swallower, a dream he gave up on when he went to medical school. Years later, he treated a patient who worked as a sword swallower, and his dream was rekindled. Rosling learned to swallow a sword. He reflects on how he loves sword swallowing because as a craft, it’s always “inspired humans to think beyond the obvious” (2).

With sword swallowing and the obvious in mind, Rosling asks the reader to answer thirteen easily researched questions about the world’s population. Following the questions, he provides the answers and informs readers that if they did poorly on the test, “you are in very good company” (6). Regardless of intelligence, education, or geographic location, people who take this quiz systematically get 11 of the 13 questions incorrect, and most people choose the same incorrect answers. They consistently choose answers that make the world sound like it is in much worse condition than it actually is.

Rosling attributes this phenomenon to what he calls an “overdramatic worldview,” which is the tendency for people to believe the worst about the world and for those negative beliefs to compound over time. After finding the overdramatic worldview present in medical students, reporters, scientists, and politicians, Rosling concluded the overdramatic worldview was not caused by the media, wrong information, or fake news, but by “the very way our brains work” (14). From an evolutionary standpoint, humans are hardwired to survive, which makes our brains think dramatically. We must actively work to curb these dramatic tendencies. Rosling closes the chapter by asking his readers to become aware of their instincts to dramatize. The goal of Factfulness is to arm readers with the critical-thinking tools necessary to make informed decisions, to cultivate a worldview based on facts, and to recognize drama and mega misconceptions before they overtake readers’ abilities to think.

Chapter 1 Summary: “The Gap Instinct”

Rosling first discovered this instinct in a class he taught in the 1990s. While discussing infant mortality rates across the world, one student observed that people in poor countries could never live like “us,” “us” meaning people in “developed” countries. Despite the fact that a world divided in this way had not existed in thirty years, intelligent young people whole-heartedly believed in a global gap; to them, the world consisted of a few rich countries, many poor countries, and a handful of middle-class countries in between. By polling people across the globe, Rosling discovered the belief of a divided world everywhere, regardless of income level, culture, race, education, etc. He attributes this tendency to the gap instinct, which is the human tendency to divide things into “two distinct and often conflicting groups” (21), usually with an exaggeratedly wide gap between them. The gap instinct is a result of old data’s influence on a worldview. People learn how the world once was and keep that view even after the facts change. The worldview of “us” and “them” is simple and easy to understand, even though it is no longer accurate.

Rosling introduces the new four-level hierarchy of global income, which he refers to throughout Factfulness to illustrate how subsequent instincts affect human understanding. Level 1 reflects the perspective of high-income countries and their views of abject poverty—in these situations, people struggle for basic needs (food, clean water, shelter) and illness is often a death sentence. At Level 2, basic needs are met and individuals have the ability to save up for important purchases like shoes, but a single incident could set a family back to Level 1. Level 3 allows for basic needs to be met and for more extravagant purchases like a refrigerator to be made; a stable savings means people can recover from sudden financial hardship. Finally, Level 4 applies to the rich countries, all of which enjoy hot and cold water, money for vacations and entertainment, and at least 12 years of education for all children.

Though this four-level system has been reality for decades, many people hold on to the idea of a two-level world. This mindset is due to binary thinking, which is the need to divide things into two basic groups “with nothing but an empty gap in between” (38). People have this tendency because it makes for a good story—the poor versus the rich is much more dramatic and interesting than the existence of four levels where most of the population lives in relative comfort. To control the gap instinct, Rosling advises readers to beware of data-hiding averages, to realize that extremes are not the norm, and to understand that the first three levels all look similar from the point of view of individuals living in Level 4.

Introduction-Chapter 1 Analysis

In the Introduction, Rosling defines factfulness and identifies the barriers to achieving a fact-based worldview. He uses sword swallowing as a simile for the human mind. People struggle to believe swallowing a sword (a sharp, dangerous weapon) is possible until they see someone swallow a sword. In the same way, people cannot fathom how the world has changed from their outdated view, sometimes even when evidence is placed before them. By identifying himself as a sword swallower (the doer of this seemingly impossible task), Rosling helps readers open up to the idea that things can be different from what they believe. With readers so primed, Rosling’s shift to fact-based questions and how often we get them wrong shows the similarity of the world to sword swallowing. Putting a sharp weapon down one’s throat is not impossible, and neither is it impossible for people to progress and for conditions to change.

The latter portion of the Introduction explains the overdramatic worldview. While Rosling settles on evolution as the primary cause, he doesn’t stop there. The human brain may work a specific way, but as rational beings, we have the ability to override our instincts. Rosling defines his aim in Factfulness to inform and enlighten, not to simply cure the overdramatic worldview. The book, like our instincts, is a tool. Armed with the proper skills to make rational, informed decisions, we can fight ignorance on a personal and global level. What readers do with the skills Rosling provides is their personal choice.

Chapter 1 presents the first tool toward combating ignorance: evidence the world can and has changed. Rosling uses the 4-Level income system to illustrate how this mega misconception of a divided world no longer applies. The 4-Level system shows readers how reality can be very different from their beliefs and presents the notion that belief and fact are not the same. Beliefs allow for a more dramatic and interesting story but, if the beliefs are incorrect, they often lead to an incorrect view as well as unnecessary stress. People are responsible for their own beliefs and worries, an idea present through the rest of the book.

Rosling’s techniques for controlling the gap instinct suggest that the best defense against the overdramatic worldview is to ask questions and stay informed. If we rely on averages and extremes, we only see part of the picture. These types of numbers hide the greater spread of data and allow us to become fixated on the importance of potentially inaccurate information. Rosling’s observation that everything looks the same from Level 4 shows how the richest individuals, those with the most free time, suffer from the overdramatic worldview on a global scale. When you have the comforts and the convenience of a high, steady income, anything less looks like abject poverty. People on Level 4 may need to work harder to control their dramatic instincts, but those on the lower three income levels are not immune to such instincts nor are they immune to the overdramatic worldview.

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